MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0318
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1104 AM EDT MON JUN 06 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 061503Z - 062103Z
 
SUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION WITH 2-4" IN A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD POTENTIALLY
CAUSING FLASH FLOOD ISSUES...

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO PORTIONS OF AL/GA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF TROPICAL
STORM COLIN. THE 12Z TLH SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING 2.6"...WITH A WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT ABOVE 15000 FEET
(BOTH OF WHICH ARE NEAR RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). PWAT
VALUES ARE A BIT LOWER AS YOU HEAD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...BUT
STILL ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 2" AND 2.4". BOTH THIS HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AND DEEP WARM LAYER SUPPORT EFFICIENT WARM PROCESS
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT ONE AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO
SETUP FROM PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL GA. THIS REGION IS ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX CONVERGENCE NORTH AND EAST OF COLIN...AND IN SYNOPTICALLY
FAVORED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF DEVELOPING UPPER JET STREAK. ALSO
APPEARS LIKE THERE COULD BE AN ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
MOVING NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF SEPARATE FROM COLIN
THAT COULD BE ENHANCING LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.

MINIMAL INSTABILITY OWING TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MAY HELP
LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. HOWEVER THE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
ENVIRONMENT STILL SUPPORTS HIGHER RAINFALL RATES. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL THIS MORNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN/NEAR PANAMA
CITY...WITH OBSERVATIONS AS HIGH AS 5.5" SINCE MIDNIGHT...MOST
FALLING SINCE 4 AM. SO FAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS
1" IN 30 MIN...WITH UP TO AROUND 1-2" IN AN HOUR. ALTHOUGH PWAT
VALUES AS HIGH AS CURRENTLY OBSERVED DUE SUPPORT HOURLY TOTALS AS
HIGH AS 2-3"...WITH RECENT COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE FLUX SUGGESTING THIS MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS IN THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CORES. 

WITH CONTINUED REGENERATION OVER SIMILAR LOCATIONS...SOME SPOTS
COULD SEE 2-4" IN A TWO TO THREE HOUR PERIOD...WHICH MAY BEGIN TO
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EXCEEDANCE OF FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
AND RISING STREAM LEVELS. A COMBINATION OF RECENT RUNS OF THE
HRRR...PARALLEL HRRR AND THE HIGH RES NMMB APPEAR TO BE HANDLING
THE PLACEMENT/MAGNITUDE OF QPF THE BEST. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS MAY BE FOCUSING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE RECENT HRRR
CONSENSUS.

CHENARD

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...JAX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   33018192 32058233 30348352 29488477 30118690 
            31478527 32278381 32918261