MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0320
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
511 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 062111Z - 070311Z
 
SUMMARY...AS THE CENTER OF COLIN APPROACHES THE FL COAST,
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING THUNDERSTORMS CLOSE TO
ITS CENTER ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.  FLASH FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...TROPICAL STORM COLIN DOES NOT RESEMBLE A TYPICAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THE MESOSCALE OR ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
 ITS MESOSCALE COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA WHILE
AN OCCLUDED FRONT-LIKE FEATURE PIVOTS ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE. 
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE FORMING NEAR AND
NORTHEAST OF ITS CENTER OF CIRCULATION DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
 IN THE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT, THIN SPOTS IN THE
CLOUDINESS ARE ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO INCREASE PER RECENT SPC
MESOANALYSIS MLCAPE/MUCAPE TRENDS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
2.3-2.5", 3-4.5 SIGMAS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR EARLY JUNE, WHICH IS
NEAR RECORD VALUES.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS 25-45 KTS PER VAD WIND
PROFILES INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE SOUTHEAST.  THE FLOW ALOFT
IS DIVERGENT SOUTH OF A SHORTWAVE SCOOTING ACROSS AL.

THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HAS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR LOCAL AMOUNTS IN
THE 3-7" RANGE, WHICH COULD FALL QUICKLY.  AS INSTABILITY RETURNS
TO THE REGION, HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 3" ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
NEAR AND TO THE LEFT OF COLIN'S TRACK WITHIN ITS COMMA HEAD AND
NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF ITS CENTER.  THIS SORT OF RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY WITHIN URBAN AREAS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...ILM...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   33678032 32977934 32178058 31168125 30538144 
            30258307 29868422 29498478 29538533 29958521 
            30678431 32678208