MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0321...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
734 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2016
 
CORRECTED FOR BEST MODEL MATCHES

AREAS AFFECTED...NEAR THE TX/OK/NM/CO BORDER 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 062329Z - 070529Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION IS GROWING IN COVERAGE AND BEGINNING TO ALIGN
WITH THE EXPECTED FORWARD PROPAGATION.  HOURLY RAIN RATES TO 2",
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 2-3" RANGE, COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE
CONSOLIDATING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO, AND ARE ALIGNING
NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO.  THIS APPEARS MOST IN
LINE WITH THE 22Z EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND 12Z SPCWRF RUNS. 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1" PER GPS DATA EQUATES TO 1.75"
ACCOUNTING FOR ELEVATION.  LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS 15 KTS PER VAD WIND
PROFILES.

THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS CONVECTION TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 20 KTS, ROUGHLY NEAR A WIND CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY SHOWING UP IN THE 23Z OBSERVATIONS.  RAP MASS FIELDS
SUGGEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.25", CLOSE TO 2"
AT SEA LEVEL, AND THAT LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE COMPLEX WITH
SLOWLY INCREASE WITH TIME.  WITH SOME SHORT BOUTS OF CELL TRAINING
POSSIBLE, HOURLY RAIN RATES COULD REACH 2" WHICH COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING.  CAM/MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE HAS A SIGNAL FOR LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 2-3" IN THIS AREA.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   37720466 37060252 35310128 34350193 34190364 
            36220455