MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0322
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
646 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 071043Z - 071443Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING TROF WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT
BACKBUILDING CELLS.

DISCUSSION...SATL LOOP SHOWS CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL STREAMS MERGING
AT OR JUST ASHORE NEAR TAMPA BAY...AN E-W LINE WITH WEAK
ANTICYCLONIC APPEARANCE TO IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF...WITH A
SHORTER SW-ENE AXIS FROM S PINELLAS COUNTY TO NEAR 26N85.5W.  LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS HIGH GIVEN 40 KTS OF 850MB ALIGNED WITH
DEEPEST Q-AXIS WITH TPWS AT OR ABOVE 2.5"...FAVORING HIGHLY
EFFICENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION EVEN WITH SHALLOW CELLS.  IR TRENDS
SHOWED THE CONVERGENT POINT INTIATE DEEPER CONVECTION TO -70C WITH
ESTIMATES OF 2.5" PER RADAR RATES.  

RAP FORECAST FIELDS ALONG WITH IR/SWIR TRENDS SUPPORT A FEW
ADDITIOANAL HOURS OF TRAINING OF THIS CONFLUENCE INTERSECTION WITH
EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WITH SLOWLY SLACKING WINDS...A
CONDICIVE BACKBUILDING/PROPAGATION VECTOR WITH VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD
DRIFT.  THIS PLACES A FOCUS OF AN ADDITIONAL 2-3" ACROSS AREAS
ALREADY AFFECTED BY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TOTALS.  

AS THE FLOW SLACKENS...A DEVELOPING/ ENHANCING NEW SW-NE LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE LINE WITH WEAK WAVE (CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST NW OF
CUBA) SHOULD ROB THE BEST MOISTURE AND CHANNEL THE THREAT FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD FT.MYERS/NAPLES BUT UNTIL THAT TIME FLUX AND SLOWING
CELL MOTIONS WILL MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   28378129 27598122 27258175 27028235 27508263 
            27798283 28108282 28058285 28368207