MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0323
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1107 AM EDT WED JUN 08 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENT AND S FLORIDA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 081515Z - 082115Z
 
SUMMARY...DEEPLY RICH MOISTURE IN FAIRLY WEAK FLOW WITH GOOD
FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT SLOW MOVING HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION WITH SOME CELL MERGERS POSES FLASH FLOODING THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SETUP INDICATES A NARROW BUT VERY RICH MST
ENVIRONMENT GENERALLY POOLED ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BAND EXTENDING NE FROM A MCV/VORT CENTER IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DRY TORTUGAS..ACROSS THE PENINSULA BETWEEN
SUA/PBI.  BLENDED TPW SUPPORTED BY 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM MFL/KEY
INDICATE VALUES OF 2.4-2.6" ALONG THIS AXIS WITH A BUBBLE OF
VALUES OVER 2" UP TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM TPA TO CAPE
CANAVERAL.  THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MID-LEVEL TROF AS WELL AS
SOME ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR FMY IS
SUPPORTING MILD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE INHIBITION BUT
SLIGHTLY REDUCED MLCAPES DUE TO FLATTER LAPSE RATES BUT SUFFICIENT
'SKINNY' CAPE FOR UPDRAFTS FOR MODERATE RAINFALLS IN THE NEAR
TERM.  NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD BARING LAYER FLOW SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ALIGNMENT OF ANY CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.

INCREASED FORCING FROM THE APPROACH OF THE MCV/VORT CENTER ALONG
WITH FAVORED UPPER LEVEL EVACUATION ON THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
DIVERGENCE TO THE CONFLUENT POLAR/SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK OFF THE
NE FL/GA COAST... WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT STRENGTH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/S PENINSULA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AS WELL FOR
WHEN CONVECTION. 

FURTHER NORTH IN CENTRAL FL...GOES-E VIS LOOP INDICATES THE
LINGERING TAIL END OF TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN
THE WAKE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN THAT EXTENDS BACK TOWARD
MLB WHERE IT APPEARS A BIT BROKEN...AS A NEW SURGE OF NORTHERLY
FLOW REINFORCES IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
PENINSULA...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE JUST OFF THE PASCO/HERNANDO
COUNTY COAST. BROKEN SKIES NORTH OF A CIRRUS OUTFLOW BAND FROM SRQ
TO MLB...INCREASED HEATING HAS SET UP A NARROW BAND OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FORECAST
BY RECENT HRRR, HRRR V2 AND ESRL HRRR RUNS AGREEING VALUES IN THE
2000-2500 J/KG RANGE.  VIS LOOP ALSO INDICATES A SLIGHT CYCLONIC
CURL TO THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY TO AID LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE 19-20Z RANGE. 

THOUGH FFG VALUES ARE HIGH...HIGH RATES/SLOW MOVING CELLS WITH
MERGERS RAIN RATES IN THE 2-3"/HR RANGE WITH SOME PROLONGED
DURATION ARE LIKELY TO POSE FF CONCERNS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
WESTERN COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE SOIL CONDITIONS ARE 150-200 PERCENT
OVER AVERAGE IN THE LAST WEEK (400-500 IN TAMPA/ST. PETE METRO).  


GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   28568058 28028045 26337995 25318043 25168106 
            25728143 25868174 26378198 26478223 26908235 
            27228265 28218279 28338154