MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0325
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
904 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENT AND S FLORIDA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 091305Z - 091905Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING EFFICIENT HVY RAINFALL PRODUCING CONVECTION
TO AFFECT AREAS SATURATED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ACROSS
SOUTH/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA.

DISCUSSION...A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
PENINSULA SOUTH OF I-4 WITH BLENDED TPW VALUES AOA 2.25" SUPPORTED
BY 12Z TBW/KEY/MFL SOUNDINGS. VIS/SWIR LOOP INDICATES A WEAK
MID-LEVEL WAVE WEST OF MARCO ISLAND WITH SUFFICIENT MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN DEFORMATION ZONE INITIATING DEEP
CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTIVE OF RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE
2"/HR RANGE AS IT PASSED THROUGH CAPE CORAL BASED ON GAUGES IN THE
AREA WITH A MAX NEAR 2.5".   RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
WESTERN COAST UP TO SRQ IS GENERALLY UNCAPPED WITH THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA QUICKLY ERODING WITH TIME...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A
GENERAL OVER TURNING PARTICULARLY FROM SRQ TO VRB WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INSOLATION WHILE ENHANCING A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY IN WHICH TO FOCUS. WITH INCREASING
CONVECTION ACROSS AREAS AFFECTED BY MULTIPLE BOUTS OF RAINFALL
LEADING TO SATURATED SOILS PRIME FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS OVER THE EARLY MORNING PERIODS GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL 2-3" PERHAPS HIGHLY LOCALIZED HIGHER 4" TOTALS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. 

AS THE LOW LEVEL VORT CENTER LIFTS FURTHER NE/ENE...A SECONDARY
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ON THE SE/SW QUADRANTS MAY ENHANCE WITH
INCREASED CONVECTION BY 17-18Z IF CLEARING MANIFESTS INCREASES
INSTABILITY FOR STRONGER UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND ISALLOBARIC ENHANCED
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG AN AXIS MAY SUPPORT A SECONDARY AXIS OF
FLOODING CONCERNS WITH A HIGHER THREAT GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF
THE BAND SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF TRAINING CELLS GIVEN TRACK OF
VORT CENTER/MEAN CELL MOTIONS.  CONFIDENCE IN THIS AXIS DEVELOPING
AS WELL AS ITS LATITUDE OF DEVELOPMENT ACROSS S FL IS A BIT LESS
THAN FURTHER NORTH THREAT BUT WORTH MONITORING.

GALLINA
 

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   28478095 28088066 27488029 27098014 26648027 
            26188060 25918100 25878140 25908165 26038182 
            26288183 26368177 26568189 26698232 27228256 
            27568248 27868207