MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0328
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
204 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL WI INTO CENTRAL IN 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 100603Z - 101203Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS OVERRIDING A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUE TO
ATTEMPT TO TRAIN, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI.  HOURLY RAIN
RATES GENERALLY UP TO 2" COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO BE ANALYZED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MN, NORTHEAST IA, AND PORTIONS OF IL.  BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY, MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG LINGER ACROSS NORTHWEST IL AND
WESTERN WI, WHILE A SECOND AREA OF INSTABILITY HAS BEEN BUILDING
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL IL.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS 25-30 KTS PER VAD
WIND PROFILES, WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.8" INHABIT
THE REGION PER GPS DATA.  SATELLITE TRENDS OF THE CONVECTIVE AREA
REMAIN UPWARD, WITH BROADENING AREAS OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS.

THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE SINGLE TRAINING BAND TO SPLIT IN TWO
AROUND AN AREA OF LESSER INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHEAST IL/CHICAGO
-- ULTIMATELY WITH ONE AREA IN WI AND ANOTHER IN INDIANA.  A
SOUTHERN BAND ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL IN AND POSSIBLY EASTERN IL
WILL EITHER PROPAGATE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OR DEVELOP IN SITU
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE
VECTORS SUGGEST A CONTINUATION OF THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST/SOUTH-SOUTHEAST CONVECTIVE ORIENTATION.  UNLIKE
LAST NIGHT, NO INTRUSIONS OF WARMER AIR AT 700 HPA ARE FORECAST,
SO NO CAPPING INVERSION ISSUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WI.

THE MESOSCALE/CAM GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY THE 12Z SPC WRF, 00Z
WRF4NSSL, AND 00Z NAM CONEST APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST IDEA OF WHAT
IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE, THOUGH AS USUAL, PLACEMENT IN THE NAM
CONEST/4 KM NAM MAY BE TOO FAR INTO THE COOL SECTOR/EAST.  SHORT
TRAINING BANDS THAT VARY SLIGHTLY IN PLACEMENT WITH TIME SHOULD
GENERALLY YIELD HOURLY RAIN RATES TO 2", THOUGH THE RECENT
OCCURRENCE OF 3" AN HOUR IN SOUTHERN WI IS POSSIBLE SHOULD ANY
BANDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT IN ANY ONE SPOT.  LOCAL AMOUNTS OF
2-4" ARE GENERALLY SHOWN BY THESE PIECES OF GUIDANCE, THOUGH 12Z
SPC WRF INDICATES THAT 5" AMOUNTS LOCALLY ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH HAVE
APPEARED TO BECOME REALIZED IN SOUTHERN WI AS OF LATE.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...GRB...GRR...IND...IWX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   44858958 42578624 40438491 39578629 43538952