MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0330
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
513 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 110912Z - 111212Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL IA,
WHICH COULD MERGE/TRAIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS
CENTRAL IA, WITH OLDER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA APPROACHING
THE REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SHORT TERM CELL MERGER.  WHILE
CLOUD TOPS HAD BEEN WARMING, SOME RECENT COOLING HAS BEEN SPOTTED
ON INFRARED IMAGERY.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ~1.75" PER RAP
FORECAST VALUES.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA REMAINS CONVERGENT OVER THE
TOP OF THE THERMAL BOUNDARY AT 25 KTS PER VAD WIND PROFILES. 
MUCAPES REMAIN 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS WESTERN IA AND NORTHWEST MO.

THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE HERE, WITH FEW PIECES
OF GUIDANCE PRODUCING 2" OF RAIN.  HOURLY RAIN RATES OF 2"+ REMAIN
POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS TRAIN AND/OR MERGE.  LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4"
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN GENERAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA.  DUE TO
THE LACK OF SUPPORT FROM THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE, UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS GREATER THAN AVERAGE.  THIS ISSUANCE WAS SUPPORTED BY
SAB/NESDIS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   42789187 42459138 41539091 40869105 40589162 
            40629252 40889321 41419380 41989380 42579284