MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0332
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
900 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TEXAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 120100Z - 120700Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND AND ORGANIZE TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH HEAVY RAINS
AND SOME FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH A FEW
OVERSHOOTING TOPS IS SEEN ADVANCING E/SE ACROSS THE NM/TX BORDER
AND GRADUALLY INTO WEST TEXAS. THE HIRES GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
HRRR/HRRRP BOTH HAVE BEEN STRONGLY ADVERTISING THAT THIS
CONVECTION WILL ATTAIN GREATER ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AND EVOLVE INTO A RATHER SLOW-MOVING AND E/SE ADVANCING MCS
IN BETWEEN PLAINVIEW AND MIDLAND WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED SOMEWHAT BY THE PRESENCE OF A VERY WEAK
UPPER LOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WHICH IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST INTO
WESTERN OK...AND THIS WILL FAVOR SOME WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE
GREATER SUPPORT THOUGH WILL COME FROM A MOIST AND UNSTABLE S/SE
LOW LEVEL JET THAT SHOULD NOCTURNALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 30
TO 40 KTS IF NOT A TAD HIGHER. MLCAPE VALUES AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION ARE QUITE ELEVATED AS IT IS...IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG
RANGE...AND PWATS ARE NEAR 2 SIGMAS ABOVE NORMAL.

RAINFALL RATES SHOULD EXCEED 2 INCHES/HR AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...RAINFALL TOTALS
SHOULD BE QUITE HEAVY. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LAST FEW
HRRR/HRRRP RUNS...EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE VALID PERIOD TO
BE AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE GOES-OTD ALGORITHM
ALREADY SHOWS A FEW OVERSHOOTING TOPS...AND THERE IS EXPECTED TO
BE PLENTY OF CELL-MERGER ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR ALONE. THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE RAINFALL RATES FURTHER...AND SO SOME ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OVER 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE PERIOD. SOME FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34070204 33530089 32799998 31829969 31260008 
            31290089 31780216 32220281 32940324 33850299