MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0334
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
423 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 120823Z - 121203Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2" COULD LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A SLOW-MOVING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL TX APPEARS TO HAVE A COUPLE MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS IN
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY.  ON INFRARED IMAGERY, CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
ARE AS COLD AS THEY'VE BEEN SINCE 03Z.  NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS FEEDING INTO ITS SOUTHWEST FLANK, WHICH IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN
1.5-2" AN HOUR RATES NEAR AND SOUTH OF MIDLAND TX.

THE HRRR RUNS SEEM TO HAVE A CLUE REGARDING THIS SYSTEM'S
EVOLUTION.  THE MESOSCALE PATTERN SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT THE
FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THIS AREA COULD PICK UP SOMEWHAT, TOWARDS
20 KTS TO THE SOUTHEAST.  HOWEVER, NEW CELL MERGERS IN ITS
SOUTHWEST FLANK AND THE PAIR OF POSSIBLE MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS
COULD LEAD TO LOCAL RAIN RATES UP TO 2".  THE TRIO OF HRRR RUNS
SUGGEST LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 2-4" RANGE.  THE POSSIBILITY OF
GREATER FORWARD PROPAGATION IN THE VERY SHORT TERM AND THE
EXPECTED WEAKENING/VEERING OF THE 850 HPA WINDS IN THIS REGION IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS KEEPING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL ABOVE AVERAGE.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   32650033 32089934 31159901 30410047 30360197 
            31500271 32110165