MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0335
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
523 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN OK 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 120922Z - 121522Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN OK.  HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5" COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ACROSS SOUTHERN OK
NEAR THE EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ACTING AS AN OUTFLOW
MECHANISM FOR THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN WEST-CENTRAL TX.  THE
MLCAPE PATTERN REVEALS THAT THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY, JUST SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER, IS THE LIKELY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ELEVATION.  THE
FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO DIVERGENT BECAUSE OF A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION NEAR NORTHEAST OK.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
1.9-2.1" IN THIS REGION PER GPS DATA.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS 20-25
KTS PER VAD WIND PROFILES, IMPORTING MUCAPES OF ~2000 J/KG OUT OF
NORTHERN TX.  TEMPERATURES AT 700 HPA ARE AROUND 9C, INDICATING
MINIMAL CAPPING IN PLACE.

THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN STATIC
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, SETTING UP THE POSSIBILITY OF CELL
TRAINING, WHICH COULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF BEGINNING SOUTH OF
OKLAHOMA CITY.  FOR ONCE, IT APPEARS THE MESOSCALE/CAM GUIDANCE IS
TOO FAR SOUTH WITH ITS HEAVY PRECIPITATION SIGNAL, BASED UPON THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WITH THE 00Z
CANADIAN REGIONAL APPEARING TO HAVE THE BEST GRASP WITH THE
PROBLEM AREA.  THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE MESOSCALE/CAM
GUIDANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY
ADVERTISING 4-7" LOCALLY.  THIS RAIN COULD FALL QUICKLY, AS HOURLY
RAIN RATES COULD PEAK AT 2.5" IN AREAS OF CELL TRAINING, HIGHER
SHOULD CELL MERGERS OCCUR.  ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD ATTEMPT TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AT ~ 10 KTS, WHICH WOULD SET UP THE CELL MERGER
POSSIBILITY, AS THE MEAN FLOW WOULD OTHERWISE GUIDE CONVECTION
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT ~ 15 KTS.  THIS SORT OF RAINFALL COULD
BREACH THE RELATIVELY HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THIS REGION.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   35909741 35349539 33999526 34049819 34479930 
            35409934