MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0336...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1148 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016
 
CORRECTED FOR WORDING IN SUMMARY STATEMENT

AREAS AFFECTED...S OKLAHOMA...SW ARKANSAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 121510Z - 121945Z
 
SUMMARY...CONTINUATION OF FLASH FLOODING THREAT AS SLOW
MOVING/BACKBUILDING CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER SW OK
AND SE OK WEAKENS.

DISCUSSION...WV/IR LOOP SHOWS TWO DISTINCT WEDGE SHAPED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES DUE TO FAVORABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SETUP ACROSS OK/AR. 
THE CENTER OF THE 5H LOW IS SET JUST WEST OF OKC WITH 35-40 KT
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS MILDLY DIFFLUENT
ACROSS THE RED RIVER WITH UPSTREAM ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH
SUPPORTIVE OF NEAR ZERO MOVEMENT OR EVEN UPSTREAM BACKBUILDING
ENVIRONMENT.  IN THE LOW LEVELS KFDR VWP STILL SUPPORTS 25-30 KT
LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE SSW WITH SOME MOISTURE FLUX/CHANNELING
FROM AIR UNAFFECTED BY THE DYING MCS ACROSS SOUTH ROLLING PLAINS
OF TX...SUPPORTIVE OF MAINTAINING THE COMPLEX A BIT LONGER THAN
MUCH OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING.  RATES UP TO
2.5"/HR WITH ADDITIONAL 3-4" TOTALS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AS CELLS
MOVE/REDEVELOP SSW OF THE COOL POOL/AREAS HIGHLY AFFECTED FROM S
CADDO TO GARVIN COUNTY.  AS FLOW SLACKENS BY 18-19Z...STRONGEST
CELLS ON UPSTREAM EDGE SHOULD START TO FORWARD PROPAGATE AND
WEAKEN THOUGH THIS LIGHTER RAINFALL ACROSS S GARVIN/MURRAY WILL
COMPOUND ANY ONGOING FLOODING CONDITIONS. 

SE OK/SW AR...A SECONDARY MAXIMA OF HVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE ALONG BEST CONVERGENCE FROM TRAILING TROF FROM
EXITING/WEAKENING S/W OVER NW AR SEEN IN WV.  A WEAKNESS BETWEEN
THE 5H FLOW ALONG WITH UL OUTFLOW CHANNEL ACROSS N TX HAS ALSO
ALLOWED FOR SOME BACKBUILDING ACROSS N ATOKA/NW PUSHMATAHA COUNTY
WITH A WEAK MCV TRYING TO DEVELOP PER RADAR MOSAIC.  THIS SHOULD
LOCALLY MAINTAIN SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FLUX/CONVERGENCE TO
MAINTAIN CONVECTION FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THOUGH OVERALL FLOW PER
VWP IS WEAKENING FASTER THAN FURTHER WEST...THOUGH THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL 1.5-2.5" ARE POSSIBLE CONTINUING FLASH FLOOD THREAT
ALONG THIS AXIS AS WELL.   

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   35619523 35319441 34129423 33779448 33739472 
            33889510 34239610 34379653 33949737 33959813 
            34139888 34859916 35549886 35439800 35059731 
            34979644 35319588