MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0337
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
312 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO...SOUTHWEST NEB...FAR NORTHWEST KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 121900Z - 130100Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A COLD FRONT. SLOW MOVEMENT AND INTENSE RAINFALL RATES MAY
RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWLY ADVANCING EAST INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THE FRONT AND A LEESIDE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CO WILL BE INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DIABATIC HEATING
CONTINUES. THE AIRMASS IS RATHER MOIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHEAST CO...SOUTHWEST
NEB AND FAR NORTHWEST KS...WHERE PWATS ARE ABOUT 1.2 TO 1.3
INCHES. THESE VALUES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 2.5 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEPER
LAYER S/SW FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL CO
AT THIS TIME...AND THIS ENERGY COUPLED WITH SURFACE FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND THE IMPROVING THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

CELL-MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SLOW AND WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES/HR...THERE MAY BE SOME SHORT-TERM FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS. THE HIRES GUIDANCE LED BY THE WRF-ARW/WRF-NMMB
AND HRRR SUGGESTS TOTALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
OF AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 INCHES...AND SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   41520202 41330128 40730113 39670166 38860194 
            38220215 37930261 37970305 38300331 39190332 
            40550335 41140276