MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0338
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
441 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 122030Z - 130000Z
 
SUMMARY...MERGING CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND ADJACENT THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS GIVEN INTENSE RAINFALL RATES.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF MERGING THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
TX...WITH A FOCUS ON THE NORTH AND WEST SUBURBS OF HOUSTON IS
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THAT ARE AS HIGH AS 2
INCHES/HR. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE OFF TO THE
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE INTERACTING WITH A VERY
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ADVECTING INLAND OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

GIVEN THE INTENSE RATES AND SLOW FORWARD PROPAGATION...SOME FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE URBANIZED
ENVIRONMENT AND RELATIVELY WET GROUND OVER ADJACENT AREAS OUTSIDE
OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.

EXPECT STORM TOTALS THROUGH 00Z TO BE AS HIGH AS 3 TO 5
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
BASED ON RECENT HRRRP OUTPUT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   30109448 29689441 29129527 28729600 28649655 
            28749699 29059698 29699616 30099512