MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0342
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1011 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST MN 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 130210Z - 130640Z
 
SUMMARY...ELEVATED CONVECTION TRAINING ACROSS NORTHEAST MN INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. 

DISCUSSION...KDLH RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN WEST NORTHWEST TO
EAST SOUTHEAST LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION STRETCHING ACROSS
NORTHEAST MN THIS EVENING. THE 00Z KINL SHOWED MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (WITH MUCAPE VALUES UNDER 500 J/KG)...BUT THE COLUMN
IS QUITE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.45 INCHES
(WITH IS BETWEEN TWO AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN). 

THE MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ON THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET (BASED ON REGIONAL VWP). THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PUMPING INSTABILITY UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN (THE 00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED AN
SBCAPE CLOSE TO 1800 J/KG). THE VEERING PROFILE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT
TRAINING SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MN.

ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES...AND THE KDLH RADAR INDICATES HOURLY RATES ABOVE 2.00
INCHES (THOUGH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT THESE
VALUES COULD BE HAIL CONTAMINATED). 

MOST OF THE RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE LATEST
RAP/HRRR) ARE NOT CAPTURING THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WELL (THOUGH THE
23Z EXPERIMENTAL HRRR DID INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL 1.50 TO
2.50 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 06Z). THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING SHOULD WANE TOWARD 06Z...AS THE 00Z RAP INDICATES THAT
THE BULK OF THE AVAILABLE MUCAPE SHOULD BE EXHAUSTED BY THAT
POINT. 

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   48189251 47979049 47778986 47229008 46879136 
            46909301 47159455 47379495 48049455