MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0343
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1219 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MN 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 130420Z - 130750Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING OVER AREAS
WITH LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES COULD RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MN INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...KMPX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN...TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES AREA. THE
IR LOOP SHOWED THAT THE CONVECTION HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS (WITH TOPS NEAR -68 C). AS THE CONVECTION
CROSSED SOUTHWEST MN...THREE HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2.00
AND 2.50 INCHES WERE NOTED. 

KMPX RADAR SHOWED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.50
INCHES SOUTHWEST OF THE TWIN CITIES...AND GIVEN THE INFLOW AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...THESE RAINFALL RATES COULD CONTINUE AS THE
STORMS CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST MN. THE BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER NORTHWEST IA COULD BECOME INVOLVED WITH
THE CONVECTION AS IT CROSSES THE WARM FRONT.

AS THE CORFIDI VECTORS BECOME EASTERLY NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT... TRAINING BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. TRAINING OVER THE
LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES (WHICH ARE AS ALLOW AS 1.00 TO
1.50 INCHES IN AN HOUR OVER SOUTHEAST ME) WOULD RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING.

NONE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS CAPTURING THE CONVECTION
WELL AT THIS TIME...BUT GIVEN WHAT HAS OCCURRED TO THE WEST WITH
THE CONVECTION...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING...LOCAL 2 TO 3
INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THESE AMOUNTS WOULD BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MN.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   45639465 45369344 45159290 44689249 44089164 
            43919141 43609125 43569139 43589124 43469219 
            43499342 43589425 44109466 45039515