MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0345
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
543 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 130945Z - 131400Z
 
SUMMARY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN OK COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...AN IMPRESSIVE AND PERSISTENT MCS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
FROM SOUTHWEST KS INTO THE PANHANDLE OF OK HAS MAINTAINED IR CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR -75 C FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE MCS IS
FOLLOWING AN MLCAPE AXIS (WITH VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG)...ON THE
EDGE OF A TIGHT PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT. BOTH THE KDDC AND
KVNX RADARS HAVE SHOWN HOURLY RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESSIVE OF 2.50
INCHES...BUT MESONET OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN CLOSER TO 1.00 TO 1.25
INCHES. THE DISCREPANCY MAY BE DUE TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL RATES
AND DRY MID LEVELS (AS SEEN ON RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER WESTERN
OK)...RESULTING IN HAIL CONTAMINATION. 

GIVEN ITS PERSISTENCE...THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN OK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
LATEST HRRR/EXPERIMENT HRRR SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL 2-3
INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 1400 UTC. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE 1.50
TO 2.00 INCH 3 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OBSERVED IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KS EARLIER THIS MORNING...SO THE HRRR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
APPEAR TO BE REASONABLE.

THE TRACK OF THE MCS SHOULD BRING IT OVER AREAS WHERE ONE HOUR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 2.00 INCHES... SO
FLASH FLOODING MAY BE LOCALIZED HERE. HOWEVER...IF THE MCS CAN
SURVIVE INTO SOUTHWEST OK BEFORE IT EXHAUSTS ITS INSTABILITY...THE
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES COULD BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC. ONE AND THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD VALUES IN THIS AREA ARE MUCH LOWER...DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL  SUNDAY MORNING. 

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   36999935 36549894 35599827 34619799 34179812 
            34179854 34209867 34209869 34449936 35720009 
            36310049 36380055 36590062 36800051 36960018 
            36969971