MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0346
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
749 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST TEXAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 131200Z - 131500Z
 
SUMMARY...WANING MCS WITH FEW LINGERING SLOW MOVING CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO POSE FLASH FLOODING THREAT. 

DISCUSSION...A N-S 5H AXIS FROM E OK INTO NE TX IS ANCHORED AT THE
BASE WITH A MATURE MCV CURRENTLY NEAR TYR LIFTING ENE. AT THIS
COMMA HEAD MODERATE OUTFLOW/ ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE ALOFT
MAINTAINS ONGOING CONVECTION THAT REMAINS WEAKLY SUPPORTED IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WITH SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FORWARD EDGE. 
CONTINUED MODERATE RATES AND SLOW ENE MOTIONS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE
AN ISOLATED FF RISK HERE.  ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE MCV THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING ACROSS E TX INTO NW LA/SW AR.  UPDRAFTS WITH THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK AND FRACTURED IN COVERAGE WITH
LIKELY ENOUGH FORWARD PROPAGATION TO LIMIT FLOODING THREATS HERE. 

ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK...THE BEST REMAINING THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING EXISTS ALONG THE EDGE OF THE COLD POOL FROM DALLAS
TO ROBERTSON/LEON COUNTIES.  CURRENTLY VWP AND RAP ANALYSIS
SUPPORTS ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE WITH SSW LL FLOW
TO 25 KTS INTO THE LINE NEAR LIMESTONE COUNTY AND WSW 850 FLOW
IMPINGING NEAR THE ANTICYCLONIC PORTION OF THE SOUTH OF DALLAS. 
THIS MAXIMIZES MODERATE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ADVECTION TO
MAINTAIN CORES CAPABLE OF RATES AOA 2-2.5"/HR.  RADAR DOES
INDICATE THE CELLS ARE A BIT BECOMING A BIT MORE FORWARD
PROPAGATING THOUGH CELL MOTIONS WILL BE IN THE 5KT RANGE SLOW
ENOUGH TO POSE LOCAL FF THREATS CONTINUING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. 

LL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN TO LESS THAN 20 KTS IN THE NEXT
3-4 HOURS LIMITING INFLOW TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION.  IR TOPS ALREADY
INDICATE WARMING AND GLACIATION TYPICAL OF THE LAST BOUT OF
SIGNIFICANT SURGE.  HOWEVER..SWIR LOOP DID SHOW A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BAND APPROACHING THE LINE IN THE LAST HOUR...POSSIBLY
SIGNIFYING A LAST GASP/SURGE OF MST FLUX/CONVERGENCE.  AS SUCH
EXPECTATION IS CELLS TO WANE IN OVERALL COVERAGE/STRENGTH IN THE
NEXT TWO HOURS...WITH LIMITED NEW DEVELOPMENT THAT MAY CONTINUE TO
POSE ISOLATED THREAT FOR THE NEXT 2-3HRS (15Z).   

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   32749455 32339411 31909430 31259551 31199659 
            31599714 32049739 32399744 32569734 32699714 
            32599673 32309658 32059630 31959590 32209538 
            32639507