MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0349
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1235 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NE...SERN SD...NRN IA INTO SRN MN 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 141634Z - 142230Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS PARTS
OF NRN IOWA AND SRN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAINFALL
RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR. THIS WILL LEAD TO A POSSIBLE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WHERE SOILS ARE WET FROM RECENT RAINFALL.

DISCUSSION...16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A LOW JUST SW OF HON WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO ITS SOUTH ACROSS E-CNTRL NEBRASKA. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDED ESEWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS NRN IOWA SEPARATING
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S TO ITS SOUTH FROM MID TO UPPER 60S TO
ITS NORTH. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM OAX AND DVN SHOWED A WEAKLY CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE AND RAP ESTIMATED MLCAPE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IS
ALREADY 1000-2000 J/KG. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGED FROM
ROUGHLY 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES BETWEEN 12-15Z...AND THESE VALUES ARE
ROUGHLY 2 TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN. VISIBLE
SATELLITE INDICATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT IN NERN NEBRASKA AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT IN
CNTRL IOWA. 

WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE TOWARD THE
EAST...KINEMATIC PROFILES SUPPORT BRIEF PERIODS OF TRAINING  FROM
SW TO NE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER EAST INTO NERN IOWA
AND SERN MINNESOTA...14 DAY RAINFALL HAS BEEN 150-300 PERCENT OF
NORMAL WITH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE CURRENTLY 1-2 IN/HR ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE MPD THREAT AREA. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IS IN PLACE ACROSS NRN IOWA AND SRN
MINNESOTA TO SUPPORT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT...SUPPORTED BY A
MAJORITY OF THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING RECENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR...HRRR_EXP AND HRRR PARALLEL.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...FSD...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   45409533 45359440 45239330 44859242 44079172 
            43429125 42649119 42299198 41989304 41679440 
            41389602 41329648 41399725 42059758 42779653 
            43559639 44909605