MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0350
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
645 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN MN...NORTHEASTERN IA...SOUTHWESTERN
WI...NORTHEASTERN IL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 142245Z - 150445Z
 
SUMMARY...AS ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE
EAST...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR...MAY CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AREAS IMPACTED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINS.

DISCUSSION...AT 22Z LOW PRESSURE WITH A WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT
REMAINED CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.  AHEAD OF THE LOW A
WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN INTO
NORTHEASTERN IA.  CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED FIRING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT AND AHEAD OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
IA.  THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE
(PWS 1.9 TO 2 INCHES) EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...WHILE MUCAPES REMAINED 1000-2000 J/KG.  20-30 KT SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN PWS OF AROUND 2 INCHES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. 
MEANWHILE...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION.  SOME NEAR TERM BACKBUILDING/TRAINING ALONG THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW IS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE EXPECT
THE HEAVIEST RAINS TO GRADUALLY PROPAGATE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  REGARDLESS...FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A
CONCERN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MN AND
NORTHEASTERN IA...WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES SUGGEST EVEN
SHORT-TERM HEAVY RAINS MAY CREATE RUNOFF CONCERNS.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...ILX...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   45029301 44759199 43759044 42698971 40978996 
            41709141 41999293 41429499 43289338