MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0353
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
622 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHWEST TN...FAR SOUTHEAST MO...FAR
NORTHEAST AR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 152220Z - 160100Z
 
SUMMARY...THE TRAINING OF CELLS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN
ON-GOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMED EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF KY.  WHILE MUCH OF THE CONVECTION HAS
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...CELLS THAT WERE
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE BECOME ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WHICH HAS RESULTED IN CELL TRAINING OVER FAR NORTHWEST
TN.  AREA RADARS AT 22Z SHOWED THAT MORE CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MO AND FAR NORTHEAST AR AND THAT THE CONVECTION
WAS WAS MOVING TOWARDS FAR NORTHWEST TN.

THE 21Z RUN OF THE PARALLEL VERSION OF THE HRRR SEEMED TO BE
CAPTURING THE SHORT TERM TRENDS...AND THE ARW LOOKED TO BE CLOSE
IN TERMS OF WHERE IT PLACED THE CONVECTION BUT IT MAY HAVE BEEN A
BIT TOO LIGHT WITH RAFL AMOUNTS. THERE WERE SOME SIGNS THAT
CONVECTION MAY BEGIN MOVING ALONG BEFORE 01Z...THINKING WAS THAT
PW VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR SO BEING DRAWN TOWARDS THE REGION SHOULD
SUSTAIN HEAVY PRODUCING RAINFALL INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY UPSTREAM.  RAINFALL RATES
SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET.  

RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN TOTALS APPROACHING 1- AND 3- HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE DUE TO TRAINING OF CELLS. 

BANN

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   37129080 36978968 36378854 35918818 35788875 
            35778958 35879084 36309137