MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0354
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
906 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 160105Z - 160330Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS
ALONG THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.  GIVEN SLOW
MOTION OF THIS COMPLEX...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...A SLOW MOVING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMED DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS.  THE STORMS
FORMED ALONG THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM SURFACE BASED CAPE...AND NEAR THE
NOSE OF A PLUME OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS SHOWN BY
00Z SOUNDINGS AND BLENDED TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTION SHOULD
BE TAPERING OFF PRETTY QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET...ALTHOUGH THE
PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 0045Z STILL SHOWED AN
INCREASING AREA OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES.  THIS POINTS
TO THE IDEA THAT CONVECTION WILL BE PERSISTING LONGER THAN SHOWN
BY THE HRRR...EXPERIMENTAL HRRRR OR THE 12Z RUN OF THE ARW.  

WHILE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN EXCESS OF 2.5
INCHES PER 3 HOURS...RADAR DERIVED PCPN ESTIMATES HAVE APPROACHED
AND EVEN LOCALLY EXCEEDED FFG OVER HARVEY COUNTY KS.  

THINKING IS THAT THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 0330Z OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS GIVEN THE SLOW
CELL MOTION AND ACTIVE UPDRAFT REGIONS.


BANN

ATTN...WFO...GID...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39709784 38889696 38379676 37929705 37689773 
            38609862 39289873