MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0355
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1013 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE...PARTS OF WEST TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 160213Z - 160615Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF WEST TX.  FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING ALONG AND EAST OF A
SURFACE DRY LINE THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TX
PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD INTO WEST TX.  00Z SOUNDINGS AND BLENDED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MOISTURE ANOMALIES OF 130 TO 150 PCT IN
PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF THE ON-GOING CONVECTION.  THIS AREA WAS ALSO
IN A REGION OF BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AND H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. AS A RESULT...THINK THAT CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH 06Z.

THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
LATCH ON TO THE IDEA OF HEAVY RAINFALL OUT HERE...WITH THE 12Z RUN
OF THE ARW SHOWING LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL.  SEVERAL RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE STARTED TO BRING OUT SOME 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS INTO A REGION WHERE 1- AND 3-HOUR FFG IS ON THE ORDER OF
2.5 INCHES.  

FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND FEED OF
MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS.  ONE FACTOR WHICH MAY LIMIT FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BPG...IS THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LIMITED BY STORMS BECOMING PROGRESSIVE.

BANN

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35139992 34329895 33729901 32449973 31150119 
            31390196 32700158 33540114 34970096