MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0360
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
758 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NE...NRN KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 172357Z - 180312Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WAS ONGOING WITH RELEASE OF VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY IN WEAK STEERING FLOW. SPORADIC LOCAL EPISODES OF
EXTREME RAIN RATES WILL PERSIST UNTIL STORMS BECOME MORE ELEVATED
AND FORWARD PROPAGATING AFTER 03Z.

DISCUSSION...A BROAD SYNOPTIC CIRCULATION AT LOW TO MID LEVELS AND
THE APPROACH OF A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT HAD CHANNELED
UNUSUALLY HOT AND MOIST AIR UP INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW
KS...AND EXTENDING ALONG THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL NE. OTHER STORMS
WERE FORMING TOWARD CENTRAL OR SW KS AT 2330Z ALONG THE MEAN DEEP
LAYER TROUGH AXIS. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MID JUNE QUALITY
SOIL MOISTURE / LOW LEVEL MOISTURE / HAD CONTRIBUTED TO UNUSUALLY
LARGE MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3000 TO 4000
J/KG...FUELING EXTREME RAIN RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR WET
MICROBURSTS. CONVECTION WAS ONLY LOOSELY ORGANIZED OWING TO MODEST
SHEAR...BUT SUFFICIENT LOWER LEVEL FLOW DOES EXIST TO SUPPORT
SUSTAINED ACTIVITY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN CONCERN IS
DURING THE FORMATIVE STAGES OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND ANY
EVENTUAL MCS...DURING WHICH INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXHIBIT MOTION OF 0-10 KNOTS AT TIMES. GOODLAND DUAL POL WSR-88D
HAD EARLIER ESTIMATED 3.5 INCHES PER HOUR RAINFALL NEAR ATWOOD.
THESE NUMBERS APPEARED BELEIVABLE...AND WERE ACTUALLY MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN THE LEGACY ALGORITHM.

HI-RES MODELS HAD DONE A GOOD JOB OF ANTICIPATING THIS
EVENT...RESULTING IN RECENT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. AFTER 03Z...CELLS IN NEBRASKA SHOULD BECOME MORE
ELEVATED AND MAY DISSIPATE OWING TO WEAK FORCING. ACTIVITY IN
KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE-WARD...AND MAY PERSIST...ALTHOUGH
CORFIDI VECTORS GROW TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS...SUGGESTING GOOD FORWARD
MOTION. DURING THE EARLY STAGES...HOWEVER...SLOW MOVING AND
MERGING CELLS WILL LAY DOWN A SPORADIC DISTRIBUTION OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

BURKE

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   42109829 41429817 39419848 38099785 37469806 
            37849892 38499963 39170055 39340112 39570148 
            39940137 40200181 40390191 40600139 41490004 
            42069928