MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0361
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1111 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 180305Z - 180700Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ADVANCE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SLOW THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT.

DISCUSSION...A COLD-TOPPED MCS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KS...AND OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SETTLED FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. HOWEVER...ONE KEY CONCERN ABOUT THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
IS THE AMOUNT OF WARM CAPPING THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS
AND INTO NORTHERN OK. THE 00Z DDC RAOB SHOWED A CAPPING INVERSION
AT 750MB...AND AS THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ENSUES...THE
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY ENCOUNTER A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUSTAINABILITY.

THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW MORE OF HOURS OF A SLOW CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION TO THE SOUTH THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND POSSIBLE
SOUTHERN KS GOING THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z...THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS
SHOULD BE ON THE DOWNSIDE.

RAINFALL RATES REMAIN QUITE HIGH...WITH DUAL-POL ESTIMATES BETWEEN
2.5 AND 3 INCHES/HR. THIS COUPLED WITH THE SLOW CELL
MOTION/STEERING FLOW DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL FAVOR SOME
ADDITIONAL VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS TO
WEAKEN LATER IN NIGHT. THE 12Z WRF-ARW AND 12Z NSSL-WRF ARE NOT
HANDLING THE PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION TOO WELL AS THEY ARE BOTH TOO
FAR NORTH...AND THIS IS A PROBLEM THE HRRR GUIDANCE IS HAVING AS
WELL...BUT ACCOUNTING FOR THE CURRENT PLACEMENT...THESE MODELS
SUGGEST ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES WITH AMOUNTS LOCALLY
CLOSE TO 5 INCHES THROUGH 06Z. THIS SOME ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE TIME BEING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39569851 38899779 37929749 37129782 37149891 
            37929945 38649947 39399910