MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0363
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
332 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NEB...NORTHEAST KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 180720Z - 181000Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEAST NEB AND NORTHEAST KS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME
WEAKENING EXPECTED TOWARD DAWN.

DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION
DROPPING GRADUALLY SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEB AND INTO NORTHEAST
KS WITH THE AID OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS HELPING TO ENHANCE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THIS REGION AND COINCIDING WITH A
NARROW BUT WELL-DEFINED NOSE OF STRONG INSTABILITY POOLED FROM
EASTERN KS NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST NEB. MLCAPE VALUES WITHIN THIS
NOSE ARE AS MUCH AS 2000 TO 3000 J/KG.

DESPITE THE GRADUALLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO PERSIST AT
LEAST UP THROUGH DAWN AND WITH THE AID OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PROFILES OVER THE REGION. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DROP SOUTH AND WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST KS
WITH A FEW CELL-MERGERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WAY. THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN NOTABLY SLOW TO DROP CONVECTION
SOUTH...BUT ACCOUNTING FOR THE CURRENT PLACEMENT...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH DAWN OF 3 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AND GIVEN THE INTENSE SHORT-TERM RATES OF UP TO 2
INCHES/HR...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE HIRES GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THIS CONVECTION WEAKENING
AFTER DAWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   41529647 41299594 40349554 39389517 38549524 
            38259570 38289613 38499652 39199700 40109741 
            40779739 41279712