MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0364...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
330 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016
 
CORRECTED FOR WORDING

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST OK...PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN TX
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 190725Z - 191230Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THROUGH DAWN...WITH
CONVECTION EXPANDING IN COVERAGE. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A SLOWLY SOUTHWEST ADVANCING AND BLOSSOMING AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER SOUTHWEST OK AND ACROSS
THE BORDER INTO TX...WITH THE CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED WITHIN AN
AREA TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLINTON TO ALTUS IN OK...AND DOWN
TO CHILDRESS IN TX. THE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID
LEVEL VORT CENTER WHICH IS INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS SEEN WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO
2000 J/KG. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO VERY MOIST THOUGH...AND GPS-DERIVED
PWATS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH ARE RUNNING AS HIGH
AS 2.2 TO 2.4 INCHES.

GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WHICH ARE SHOWING COOLING CLOUD
TOPS...WITH A FEW OVERSHOOTING TOPS SEEN IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES
NEAR THE CHILDRESS TX AREA...THE RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IMPRESSIVELY HIGH...AND ESPECIALLY WITH SUCH A HIGH PWAT
ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT RAINFALL RATES TO EXCEED 3 INCHES/HR
UNDERNEATH THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CORES. THERE IS A SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL JET APPROACHING 30 KTS AS PER AREA VAD WIND PROFILER
DATA...AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND
FORCING NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE VORT DYNAMICS ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW THE CURRENT CONVECTION TO EXPAND FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST
WITH SOME BACKBUILDING POTENTIAL. 

THE LATEST HRRR AND HRRRP SUGGEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 8 INCHES
THROUGH 12Z. THESE HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS AND CONSIDERING THE
SHORT-TERM RATES ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35049931 34609899 34089909 33289945 32670012 
            32730096 33000134 33400138 34040113 34510065 
            34910004