MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0371
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
939 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ND 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 220138Z - 220738Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN NUMBER ACROSS ND NEAR
AND AHEAD OF A TROWAL.  WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2" POSSIBLE,
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE WITH COOLING
CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, WITH ACTIVITY NEAR THE TROWAL NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF A SURFACE LOW SHOWING LESSER FORWARD PROPAGATION.
 MUCAPES IN THE REGION ARE 1000-3000 J/KG, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR THE STORMS ARE 1.1", WHICH TRANSLATES TO ~1.4" AT SEA
LEVEL.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS 25-35 KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH
IS LIKELY HAMPERING THE FORWARD PROPAGATION.

THE CAM/MESOSCALE GUIDANCE ADVERTISES LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 2-3"
RANGE, WHICH COULD FALL QUICKLY.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE ANOTHER ~0.4", WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR HOURLY
RAIN RATES OF 2" WHERE CELLS TRAIN OR MERGE.  FLASH FLOODING IS A
CONCERN, PARTICULARLY WITHIN URBAN AREAS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...FGF...GGW...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   49090222 49090011 48769938 46869869 45979936 
            45870236 46190358 48380503 48980411