MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0372
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
944 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KY...NORTHEAST TN...FAR SOUTHWEST
VA...WESTERN NC 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 220145Z - 220500Z
 
SUMMARY...SHORT TERM TRAINING IN A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW COULD
RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KY...IN AN AXIS OF 1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KY INTO NORTHEAST TN. THE BLENDED TPW
PRODUCT AND LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A STRIPE OF 1.60 TO 1.90
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR. DUAL POL HOURLY RAINFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF 2.00 INCHES WERE OBSERVED ON THE KJKL RADAR...THOUGH
UPSTREAM STORM REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE RADAR COULD BE
OVERESTIMATING RAINFALL WITH THE CONVECTION...DUE TO HAIL
CONTAMINATION.

THE LATEST RAP INDICATED THAT THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN  CONVECTION TRAINING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KY
INTO NORTHEAST TN...FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND A PORTION OF WESTERN NC
THROUGH ABOUT 0430Z. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FOCUS THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE
AXIS. THE 23Z PARALLEL HRRR SHOWED LOCAL 3 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHEAST TN...WHILE THE LATEST HRRR/EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR RUNS WERE CLOSER TO AN ADDITIONAL 2.00 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT...A
CONVECTION TRAINS OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED 3+ INCHES OF RAINFALL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. 

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...GSP...JKL...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   37408314 37118218 36688136 36278100 35788079 
            35558094 35678166 36348356 37168414 37348389 
            37398371