MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0374...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
730 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016
 
CORRECTED FOR ADJUSTING TEXT AND MODEL TIME

AREAS AFFECTED...SE ILLINOIS...S INDIANA...E KENTUCKY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 221116Z - 221516Z
 
SUMMARY...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TRAINING CONVECTION CONTINUE ON AN
AXIS OF MAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION. 
THIS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. 

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION FROM EASTERN IOWA AND EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHERN INDIANA, AND MODERATE TO HEAVY STRATIFORM RAIN JUST NORTH
OF THE HEAVY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  MLCAPE VALUES ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THIS ZONE RANGED BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES PROGGED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.7 AND 2.1 INCHES ON THE
LATEST HRRR RUN BY 12Z. 

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED EXPANSIVE COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER
MUCH OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WITH THIS ONGOING MCS.  WARM RAIN
PROCESSES ARE ALSO AT WORK HERE OWING TO THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS,
RESULTING IN MORE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS AND THUS INCREASING
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.  A 25 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL RUN UP AND OVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, PROVIDING A
SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 

WITH RESPECT TO THE NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE, THE LATEST HRRR RUNS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY AREAS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER THIS REGION.  THE
SSEOMEAN ALSO SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF 1 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS OVER PARTS
OF THIS AREA.  SOME OF THIS WILL LIKELY FALL ON AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN YESTERDAY EVENING.  

HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   40318783 40308674 39908548 39278470 38508350 
            37878259 37318261 36778316 36618396 36808477 
            37288567 37828662 38198743 38478799 38798839 
            39368903 40058864