MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0376
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
924 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST NM, OK PANHANDLE, SOUTHWEST KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 230123Z - 230423Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE NEAR THE
CO/OK/TN/KS BORDER.  WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2" POSSIBLE,
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WITH OVERSHOOTING TOPS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING NEAR AND EAST OF A FRONTAL WAVE.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF CLOSE TO 1.5" EXIST HERE, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY RAP
FORECAST FIELDS AND THE DDC 00Z SOUNDING.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS 25
KTS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST PER THE AMA VAD WIND PROFILE.  MUCAPE
OF 1000-3000 J/KG EXISTS IN THIS AREA.

THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE UNDERPLAYING THE POTENTIAL IN
THIS AREA, AT MOST SUGGESTING LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2" RANGE. 
CELL MOTION HAS BEEN INITIALLY CHAOTIC, BUT A GENERAL MOVEMENT TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS IS ANTICIPATED AS CONVECTION
FORWARD PROPAGATES TOWARDS GREATER INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, WHICH COULD BECOME ELEVATED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
SLIGHTLY VEERING 850 HPA INFLOW SHOULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
EASTWARD OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHWEST KS. 
RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW 2" AN HOUR RATES, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. 
BELIEVE LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4" ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO CELL MERGERS
BEFORE THE COMPLEX ATTEMPTS TO FORWARD PROPAGATE WITHIN THE NARROW
BREAK IN THE CAPPING INVERSION.  

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   37650112 37350040 36760051 36400112 36240251 
            36170389 36580446 37190404 37500313