MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0378
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
653 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN KY/SOUTHERN WV/EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
VA... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 231052Z - 231422Z
 
SUMMARY...RECENT COOLING OF CLOUD TOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN OH SHOULD
TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM INTO SOUTHERN WV DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
EXPECT HOURLY RAINFALL RATES TO COME UP WHICH WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE
THE FLASH FLOOD RISK THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...WHILE MUCH OF THE NOCTURNAL MCS HAS EXHIBITED A
DOWNWARD TREND WHILE CROSSING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...RECENT IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY/CG LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS SHOWED AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION ALONG THE LOWER OH RIVER. BASED ON THE 10Z RAP
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS MUCAPE FIELDS...THIS RENEWED BOUT OF CONVECTION
SEEMS TO BE TRAVERSING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE RESIDING ALONG THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS LOWER NEW
ENGLAND. ADDITIONALLY...GENERAL WESTERLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IS
NOTED IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE PER RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND VWP DATA. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT THETA-E
RICH/BUOYANT AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING.
WHILE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...LOCAL FFG VALUES ARE ON THE LOWER
END WHICH SUPPORTS A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE MPD AREA.
OVERALL...WOULD SAY THE 00Z NSSL-WRF HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION WHICH FAVORS ENHANCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
EASTERN KY INTO SOUTHERN WV THIS MORNING. MESONET DATA HAVE
SUGGESTED AN INCREASE IN HOURLY RATES AS SUCH AMOUNTS HAVE BEGUN
TO NEAR OR LOCALLY EXCEED AN INCH OVER SOUTHERN OH.



RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...JKL...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   38678155 38428060 37948025 37468048 37128126 
            37078220 37318288 38038308 38488257