MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0379
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
144 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN OH/NORTHEASTERN KY/WV/FAR WESTERN VA... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 231743Z - 232143Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO TRAIN OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
WV WHERE HOURLY RATES HAVE MAXIMIZED IN THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH
RANGE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO FIRE ACROSS
SOUTHERN OH/NORTHEASTERN KY WITH THESE STORMS LIKELY TO MIGRATE
INTO SATURATED GROUNDS. FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT AS THIS TRAINING EPISODE PERSISTS.

DISCUSSION...DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED
TO REGENERATE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS GIVEN A SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY POOL REMAINING IN PLACE. THE 17Z RAP OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS INDICATES 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE IN THE REGION OF
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. THIS HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY
1.50 TO 1.75 INCH PWAT VALUES PER 12Z RAOBS AND GPS DATA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED STREAKS OF CU ORIENTED WEST-EAST ALONG
THE LOWER OH RIVER WITHIN AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THESE GENERALLY
ALIGN WITH THE MEAN STEERING FLOW. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE BEGUN
TO SHOW UP ON RADAR IMAGERY WITH THE GENERAL STORM MOTIONS
CARRYING THESE CELLS EASTWARD INTO REGIONS WHICH ARE QUITE
SATURATED. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
1.50 TO 2 INCH RANGE WITHIN THE HEFTIER CORES WHICH WILL ENHANCE
THE FLASH FLOOD RISK...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL WV WHERE FFG
VALUES ARE QUITE LOW.

MANY OF THE RECENT 12Z CAMS INCLUDING THE NSSL-WRF...HRW-ARW...AND
HRW-NMM-B SHOW A MAXIMA OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN EXTENT OF
THE MPD AREA. THIS AXIS SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS AND WHERE ENHANCED CU ARE DEVELOPING.

RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...LWX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   39618288 39468133 38547948 37597982 37348061 
            37958255 37798404 37918471 38708502 39298430