MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0380...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
543 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016
 
CORRECTED FOR TEXT IN FIRST PARAGRAPH

AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER OH VALLEY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 232138Z - 240338Z
 
SUMMARY...A LONG BAND OF TRAINING CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH A SECOND LINE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.  WITH
HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5" POSSIBLE, FLASH FLOODING REMAINS
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST IL IS LEADING TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WAVE ALONG THE EFFECTIVE FRONT NEAR
THE SOUTHERN IN/SOUTHERN OH BORDER, WHICH HAS LED TO A LONG LINE
OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN KY INTO SOUTHERN VA.  A
SECOND LINE NEAR A SECONDARY COLD FRONT (OR ALONG AN INVERTED
TROUGH FROM THE APPARENT WAVE) IS DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN OH
TOWARDS NORTHERN KY AND WESTERN WV.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.5-2" LIE ACROSS THIS REGION PER GPS DATA AND RAP FORECAST
FIELDS.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA REMAINS 20-30 KTS ON VAD WIND PROFILES,
ROUGHLY ALONG THE LINES OF THE 850-400 HPA MEAN WIND -- THE FLOW
IS UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH HEIGHT.  MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-3500 J/KG
LIE UPSTREAM AND SOUTH OF THE COMPLEX ACROSS KY, SOUTHERN VA, AND
NC.

THE CAM/MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HAS A SIGNAL FOR LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO
3-5", WHICH COULD FALL QUICKLY.  THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DEGREE
OF CELL TRAINING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEGMENTS TO REACH HOURLY RAIN
RATES TO 2.5".  THE 12Z SSEO NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES SUGGEST
THAT THE LINE SHOULD DECAY AFTER 04Z, LIKELY DUE TO WEAKENING
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AS INSTABILITY SHOULD LINGER OVERNIGHT. 

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX...RAH...
RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   39418411 39248248 39278157 39058087 38398038 
            37427831 36567798 36418060 36568257 36998434 
            38118572 38988570