MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0381
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
722 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS & SOUTHWEST MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 232321Z - 240321Z
 
SUMMARY...CELL TRAINING/MERGERS ARE BEGINNING TO OCCUR WITH THE
LONG-LIVED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST KS.  HOURLY RAIN RATES
TO 2.5" COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT BEGAN IN NORTHEAST NM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HAS BEGUN TO FORM A TRAINING WARM ADVECTION
THUNDERSTORM BAND WHICH EXTENDS INTO SOUTHWEST MO.  WHILE
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS MEAGER, FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE COMPLEX
APPEARS TO BE OFFSETTING THIS, LEADING TO GREATER STORM-RELATIVE
INFLOW.  MLCAPES UP TO 4000 J/KG LIE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF ~1.75" LIE NEAR THIS SYSTEM PER RAP
FORECAST FIELDS.

HRRR GUIDANCE APPEARS WAY TOO SLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM'S PROGRESSION.
 THE MESOSCALE/CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS A MODEST SIGNAL FOR LOCAL
AMOUNTS IN THE 2-4" RANGE, WHICH COULD FALL QUICKLY AND CHALLENGE
THE HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THIS AREA.  HOURLY RAIN
RATES UP TO 2.5" ARE POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO
2".  THE ORGANIZED SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE EAST TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 20 KTS PER FORWARD PROPAGATION VECTORS.  THE 18Z
SSEO NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WOULD PEAK
BETWEEN 01-02Z.  WILL USE A FOUR HOUR HORIZON HERE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY CAUSED BY ITS WEAK LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND HOW LONG THE
WARM ADVECTION CONVECTIVE PATTERN COULD PERSIST.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38099547 37939285 36659094 36259189 36329400 
            37159622