MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0384
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
732 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 262331Z - 270530Z
 
SUMMARY...VERY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF RAINFALL RATES
OF 1-2 IN/HR ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE HEAVY RAINFALL
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCALIZED...A COUPLE OF COUNTIES COULD
SEE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3-4 INCHES.

DISCUSSION...WHILE AN UPPER LOW OVER BPG AND SJT HAS BEGUN TO
DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE
LOW-MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS SLOW MOVING WITH
A SLIGHT DRIFT TOWARD THE SW. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY...CORRELATING TO
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75 INCHES...OR
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +1 TO +2. 

SSELY 850 MB FLOW SHOULD PICK UP THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
BETWEEN 00Z TO 03Z INTO THE 25-30 KT RANGE...WHICH WILL HELP
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SLOW MOVING OR BACK BUILDING CONVECTION...MAINLY EAST OF THE 500
MB LOW CENTER WITH MEAN STORM MOTIONS OFF TOWARD THE N OR NW AT
5-10 KTS. IN ADDITION...RAP FORECASTS HAVE HINTED AT AN AREA OF
700 MB CONFLUENCE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER WHICH MAY ADD A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PAST SUNSET. LASTLY...A NOCTURNAL
FLARE UP OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
MID-LEVEL LOW MAY ALSO PROVIDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF
CURRENT FFG OF 2.5 TO 4 INCHES IN 3 HOURS. 

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT A
FEW COUNTIES MAY SEE 3-4 INCHES IN A 2 HOUR TIME FRAME. CAM
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RATHER AGREEABLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 00-12Z...BUT HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH
THE TIME OF DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
FLOW...AND ONGOING CONVECTION EAST OF THE UPPER LOW...THINKING A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL INCREASE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...EWX...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33330255 33210183 32320084 31390029 30180019 
            29490064 29590168 30040255 31110317 32150319 
            32960300