MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0386
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
427 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WV INTO WESTERN VA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 272026Z - 280100Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS ACROSS AREAS WITH VERY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THROUGH
SUNSET. THE THREAT WILL SHIFT SEWD WITH TIME AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH/REMNANT FRONT.

DISCUSSION...RAINFALL RATES OF 1.0 TO 1.5 IN/HR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
SO FAR ACROSS PARTS OF WV...ERN KY AND WRN VA THROUGH 20Z AMID
ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF +1 TO +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN. MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE FROM ABOUT
500 TO 1500 J/KG VIA THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE...OUT AHEAD
OF A PROGRESSIVE BOUNDARY...REMNANT COLD FRONT. 

ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
PROGRESS SEWD INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS WHICH SHOULD END THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS NWRN PORTIONS OF THE MPD THREAT AREA IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GIVEN WEAK FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF
THE TROPOSPHERE...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE
CELLS TO CONTINUE TO BE DISORGANIZED AND SOMEWHAT SHORT LIVED IN
NATURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK INCH OR TWO WITH SHORT LIVED
TRAINING IS PRESENT BEFORE OUTFLOW TAKES OVER AND DIMINISHES
CONVECTIVE DURATION OVER ANY GIVEN LOCATION. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
DIFFLUENT ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AROUND A RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES LOCATED ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHICH SHOULD ADD TO VERTICAL LIFT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2.0 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET...AT WHICH POINT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH WITH VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE LATEST CAM
GUIDANCE SHOWING THE DIMINISHING THREAT PAST 00Z...AS CONVECTION
MOVES AWAY FROM CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALEUS OF 1 TO 1.5
IN/HR.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   39607816 39577786 39417778 39067798 38477841 
            37647880 37247951 36618044 36388127 36738266 
            38128200 39008017 39377931 39587877