MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0389
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
318 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...MOGOLLON RIM OF AZ 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 281917Z - 282317Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN RATES HAVE BEGUN TO OCCUR
ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM.  WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2" POSSIBLE,
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.  TO ITS EAST, INFLOW AT 700 HPA OF 15 KTS (ABOVE THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE MEAN 850-400 HPA WIND) IS HELPING TO ORGANIZE
CONVECTION ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM NEAR FLAGSTAFF WITH OVERSHOOTING
TOPS, WHICH HAS LED TO ISSUES.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THERE
ARE 0.87" PER GPS INFO, WHICH IS ROUGHLY SIMILAR TO 1.5" AT SEA
LEVEL.  MLCAPES IN THE REGION ARE 1000-2000 J/KG PER RECENT SPC
MESOANALYSES.

THE GALVEZ-DAVISON INSTABILITY INDEX BASED ON THE GFS SHOWS VALUES
OF 30-35 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM, WHICH IS QUITE HIGH
FOR THE REGION AND SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
BELIEVE ISSUES SHOULD PERSIST NEAR AND WEST OF FLAGSTAFF ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS -- ENOUGH MOISTURE,
INFLOW, AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. 
THE SIGNAL IN THE CAM/MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HERE IS FLEETING -- ONLY
THE 00Z SPCWRF APPEARS TO HAVE SOME HANDLE ON THE SITUATION.  WITH
HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2", AND LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 2-3" RANGE,
POSSIBLE, FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TERRAIN OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...

LAT...LON   37131279 36651213 35111121 34221050 34231195 
            34911382 36111373 37011403