MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0401
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
856 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 010055Z - 010600Z
 
SUMMARY...ORGANIZING CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE LATE-EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...BROKEN CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
GRADUALLY ORGANIZE OVER EASTERN CO AND TO SOME EXTENT FARTHER EAST
INTO FAR WESTERN KS. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AT THIS POINT BASED
ON RAP ANALYSES IS OVER SOUTHEAST CO WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE AS
HIGH AS 1500 J/KG...AND THIS IS ALSO WHERE SOME OF THE COLDEST
CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE SET UP OVER THE HOUR. MLCAPE VALUES ARE MUCH
MORE MODEST FARTHER NORTH OVER NORTHEAST CO WHERE CONVECTION HAS
ALREADY HELPED TO STABILIZE THE COLUMN.

THE HIRES GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN CO EJECTS EAST OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH PROXIMITY OF A
FRONT AND THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR RATHER WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. PWATS AS PER GOES-SOUNDER DATA ARE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER WESTERN
KS AND THIS WILL FAVOR RATHER HIGH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 1.5
INCHES/HR.

THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW OVERSHOOTING TOPS ALREADY AND THIS COUPLED
WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF CELL-MERGERS THROUGH THE EVENING MAY TEND TO
ENHANCE THE RAINFALL RATES A BIT MORE...AND TO THE EXTENT OF
CAUSING SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 2
TO 3 INCH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS THROUGH 06Z...BUT SOME HEAVIER
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 4 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WHERE OVERSHOOTING
TOPS AND CELL-MERGERS OCCUR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40810304 40360215 39550100 38640045 37610050 
            36970108 36940183 37070296 37470417 38080492 
            38680519 39000485 39440398 40590372