MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0403
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1250 AM EDT FRI JUL 01 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...NWRN/NRN OK 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 010449Z - 011049Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NWRN/NRN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH SLOW
STORM MOTIONS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. UPSLOPE FLOW INTO WRN
KANSAS MAY ALSO POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT GIVEN LOW FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IN PLACE. 

DISCUSSION...04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
FROM E-CNTRL KANSAS TO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NWWD THROUGH ERN
COLORADO. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...INTERSECTING THE FRONT ALONG THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER NORTH OF GAG. INSTABILITY REMAINED BETWEEN
1000-2000 J/KG NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT AND TO ITS SOUTH...WHILE
AREAS IN WRN KANSAS WERE ROUGHLY 500 J/KG. VERY SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION...5 KTS...TO NEARLY STATIONARY MOVEMENT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NWRN OKLAHOMA WHILE MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN FAR WRN KANSAS WAS SLOWLY TRANSLATING
ESEWD.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
NWRN AND NRN OKLAHOMA GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT OF RAINFALL AND LOCALLY
HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERRUNNING THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS WEAK...LESS THAN 15 KTS BUT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
IS MAXIMIZED OVER NWRN OKLAHOMA WHICH SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
VERTICAL MOTIONS. 2-3 INCH RAINFALL IN 1-2 HOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
 
UPSLOPE FLOW IN WRN KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT 15-25 KTS WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
ONLY 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS. DESPITE THE WANING INSTABILITY
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25 TO 1.50+ INCHES IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT POCKETS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. 

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GLD...ICT...OUN...PUB...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39190134 39080038 38539962 37809872 36549692 
            35719708 35739799 36189900 36439966 36600022 
            36700075 36790146 36800187 37020216 37430231 
            37850232 38270228 38640222 38990197