MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0404
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
201 AM EDT FRI JUL 01 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CA INTO SRN NV...FAR NWRN AZ 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 010600Z - 011100Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR PARTS OF
ERN CALIFORNIA AND SRN NEVADA THROUGH OVER THE NEXT 4-5 HOURS.
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS
GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH PERSISTENCE OF STORMS BEYOND 11Z.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO FROM GOES WEST
INFRARED SATELLITE HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER SERN
PORTIONS OF NYE COUNTY...WITH EXPANSION TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL VORT SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER...OR NYE AND INYO
COUNTIES. UPPER FLOW IS CURRENTLY DIVERGENT AND DIFFLUENT OVER SRN
NEVADA  WITH RAP ESTIMATED FLOW OF 50-70 KTS IN CNTRL NEVADA AT
200 MB. MOISTURE REMAINS HIGHLY ANOMALOUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JULY WITH 1.77 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER REPORTED SOUTH OF EED IN
ERN CALIFORNIA AT 05Z...WITH MOISTURE DROPPING OFF INTO SRN
NEVADA...WITH VALUES CLOSER TO 1 INCH. DESPITE THE LOWER VALUES TO
THE NORTH...STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE +3 TO +4 AND SUPPORTIVE OF
RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR. 

GIVEN ESTIMATED MUCAPE VALUES ARE STILL IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG AS
OF 05Z OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...AND LOCALLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL
FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE OF 20-30 KTS FROM THE SOUTH...THE
EXPECTATION IS FOR THESE STORMS AND THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 4 HOURS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO SRN NEVADA BY 11Z...IT IS UNCLEAR IF THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
WILL LINGER...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...LKN...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...

LAT...LON   38211606 37821498 36681381 35491373 34811426 
            34751543 35851700 37261767 38021720