MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0405
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
704 AM EDT FRI JUL 01 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...AZ/CA/NV BORDER JUNCTION 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 011103Z - 011403Z
 
SUMMARY...A SMALL PATCH OF CONVECTION IS SLOWLY FORWARD
PROPAGATING INTO THE SOUTHERN MOJAVE DESERT.  HOURLY RAIN RATES OF
UP TO 2" COULD CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR ANOTHER 2-3
HOURS.

DISCUSSION...COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX FORWARD PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 15 KTS THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN MOJAVE DESERT.  A FEEBLE WARM ADVECTION BAND IS
ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP IN EXTREME WESTERN AZ AND FAR SOUTHERN NV
WHICH HAS YET TO MOVE.  WHEN COMBINING THE LINE'S FORWARD
PROPAGATION WITH THE WEAK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 700 HPA, ABOUT
20 KTS OF STORM RELATIVE INFLOW IS BEING REALIZED.  MLCAPES OF
1000 J/KG AND MUCAPES OF 2000 J/KG LIE IN THE REGION.  THE BULK
SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS 20-30 KTS, WHICH APPEARS TO BE
MAINTAINING THIS AREA AS AN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER. 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.75" LIE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
CLUSTER PER GPS VALUES.

WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS, THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY (BOTH MLCAPE AND
MUCAPE-WISE) WHICH SHOULD ACT TO NARROW THE BAND, POTENTIALLY
SPEED UP ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT, AND HOPEFULLY LEAD TO WEAKENING OF
THE CLUSTER.  UNTIL THEN, HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2" COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING/DEBRIS FLOWS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...

LAT...LON   35591492 35281403 34821348 34071454 33911554 
            34801579