MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0406
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1257 PM EDT FRI JUL 01 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST AZ & SOUTHWEST NM 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 011657Z - 012257Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUICKLY DEVELOPING WITHIN SOUTHEAST
AZ.  HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5" COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING/DEBRIS FLOWS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BLOSSOMING, WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS
SEEN ON IR IMAGERY, IN THE VICINITY OF A 700 HPA TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AZ -- 1-2 HOURS AHEAD OF THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE.  CIN
HAS ERODED ACROSS EASTERN AZ PER RECENT SPC MESOANALYSES.  ALOFT,
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AZ, WITH A WEAK JET
STREAK APPARENT IN THE AREA.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THIS
MORNING WERE 1.8", AT LEAST THREE SIGMAS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR EARLY
JULY.  CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL INFLOW WAS ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH WAS ADVECTING IN 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES
INTO THE AREA.

MLCAPES ARE LIKELY TO RISE TOWARDS 2500 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ
LATER TODAY.  THE EXPECTATION IS FOR SHORT TRAINING BANDS DUE TO
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH HEIGHT AND CELL MERGERS TO LEAD TO HOURLY
RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5".  BELIEVE LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4" ARE POSSIBLE
HERE, WHICH IS SOMEWHAT ABOVE THE AVAILABLE MESOSCALE/CAM
GUIDANCE.  THE 700 HPA TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE THUNDERSTORM AREA TO
ADVECT SOMEWHAT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TODAY.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34170932 33900855 33290808 31790751 31690806 
            31160836 31161041 31241086 31621214 32471200 
            33181119 34001029