MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0407
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
543 PM EDT FRI JUL 01 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO...SOUTHEASTERN WY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 012140Z - 020340Z
 
SUMMARY...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...LOCALLY HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE...WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION AS AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
ACROSS EASTERN CO AND WY.  AS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PROGRESSES...PWS OF 1.25 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER
1.5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AS
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW DRAWS DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS
EASTERN CO.  MEANWHILE THE LATEST RAP SHOWS SUSTAINED MUCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  A MID LEVEL
VORT MAX...EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER-SCALE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NM
INTO CENTRAL CO...SUPPORTING LARGER SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. 
THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS TWO AREAS OF RELATIVELY HEAVIER
ACCUMULATIONS...ONE IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED REGIONS OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE...AND THE OTHER FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER NORTHEAST
CO...WHICH IS SUPPORTED IN PART BY A WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
CENTERED NEAR DEN.  6-HR QPF FROM THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY
0.25-0.5 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH 03 UTC...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 1.5-2 INCHES.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WET
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS PRODUCED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINS...ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE RUNOFF CONCERNS. 

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   42290421 41350377 40420309 39770356 39380269 
            38710286 37950443 38090538 39310465 40580509 
            41360482