MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0408...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
825 PM EDT FRI JUL 01 2016
 
CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC TYPO

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN CO...WESTERN KS...OK PANHANLE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 020015Z - 020615Z
 
SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EAST THIS EVENING...EXTENDING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
INTO WESTERN KS.

DISCUSSION...STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO ALONG THE
WESTERN FLANK OF A SLOW MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KS LATER THIS EVENING.  THE LATEST
RAP SHOWS STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA THIS EVENING...WITH PWS
INCREASING TO AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS.  
MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL FORCING AFFORDED BY ENERGY EMANATING FROM
THE WEST...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALONG THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
LARGER SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS MOISTURE AND LIFT
ALONG WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES...WITH SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS INDICATING LOCAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3 INCHES THROUGH 6 UTC.  3-HR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA ARE 1.5 INCHES
OR LESS...SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS WOULD CREATE RUNOFF
CONCERNS.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38680170 38529947 37109837 37099946 36810120 
            37400232 37580293 38150266