MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0410
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
225 AM EDT SAT JUL 02 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...KANSAS INTO SWRN MISSOURI 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 020623Z - 021215Z
 
SUMMARY...A CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD WILL EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING
AHEAD OF A QLCS MOVING THROUGH W-CNTRL KANSAS. 3 HRLY RAINFALL
RATES OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF I-70.

DISCUSSION...A QLCS WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS IN LANE AND SRN
TREGO COUNTIES WAS OBSERVED TO BE PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS WRN AND
CNTRL KANSAS AS OF 06Z. THE DDC VAD WIND PROFILE HAS SHOWN AN
INCREASE IN 850 MB FLOW OF ABOUT 10 KTS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH
AN EAST-WEST AXIS OF CONVECTION BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS THE
CENTER OF THE STATE SINCE 04Z WITH AN OBSERVATION FROM PAWNEE
COUNTY REPORTING A RAINFALL RATE OF JUST OVER 2 IN/HR ENDING AT
06Z. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING NEAR AN 850 MB WARM
FRONT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO OVERRUN THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
LOCATED IN OKLAHOMA AND IS THE GREATEST AREA OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN
FOR FLASH FLOODING. 

AS THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE TOWARD THE EAST
THIS MORNING...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE 850 MB FRONT DOWNSTREAM INTO SERN KANSAS AND SWRN
MISSOURI THROUGH 12Z. INSTABILITY IS PRESENTLY WEAKER TOWARD THE
EAST...BUT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...SOME INCREASE IN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH MOVEMENT OF THE
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER CNTRL KANSAS...FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS ERN KANSAS INTO SWRN MISSOURI MAY ALSO BECOME AN
ISSUE LATER ON THIS MORNING. 

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...GID...GLD...ICT...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39689812 39539643 39149484 38499343 37259267 
            36689368 37039573 37309736 37499879 37310120 
            37420165 37690184 37930164 38310112 38570069 
            39229994 39579935