MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0411
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
149 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...THE EASTERN CO/NM BORDER & PORTIONS OF KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 021748Z - 022348Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED OVER AN
AREA OF SATURATED SOILS.  HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5" COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES ARE LEADING TO INCREASING INSTABILITY
NEAR AND SOUTH OF A THERMAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER -- WITH
POCKETS OF 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPES.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO AT THIS TIME.  THE THERMAL BOUNDARY IS
NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH A REGION OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CAUSED BY
RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS FROM AN OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX.  A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN CO PER RECENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SEEN EXTENDING
ACROSS EASTERN NM INTO SOUTHWEST KS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.3-2" LIE NEAR THIS AREA PER GPS DATA -- 2-3 SIGMAS ABOVE THE
MEAN FOR EARLY JULY.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS SOUTHWEST AT 25-35 KTS
ACROSS KS AND CONVERGENT NEAR THE EASTERN CO/NM BORDER.

THE EXPECTATION IS THAT CIN ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD ERODE BY 19Z
WHICH WOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM NEAR THE THERMAL
DISCONTINUITY WHICH COULD EDGE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH.  THE 06Z
SSEO NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES SUGGEST CONVECTION SHOULD ASCEND
MAINLY AFTER 20Z, DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TIME. 
CONVERGENT INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS EXPECTED TO BACK AND WEAKEN TO TO
20-25 KTS.  HOWEVER, 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS 30-40 KTS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA, SO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE DESPITE THE
MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL INFLOW.  CELL TRAINING/MERGERS ARE CONSIDERED
THE MAIN HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS.  THE CAM/MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4" NEAR THIS REGION, WHICH COULD
FALL QUICKLY.  HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5" ARE POSSIBLE.  GROUNDS
ARE SATURATED BY RECENT RAINFALL -- OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ACROSS WESTERN KS/EASTERN CO AND FROM OVERNIGHT/THIS MORNING FOR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS.  SINCE THE CAM/MESOSCALE GUIDANCE
PLACEMENT DOES NOT SHOW GREAT AGREEMENT, CHOSE THE POSSIBLE RATHER
THAN THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...PUB...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   39169877 38779857 38559794 38619709 38599696 
            38589646 38849608 38899586 38839536 38039681 
            37239689 37479882 37370035 37200137 36890276 
            36870297 36740376 36670492 37200563 37580449 
            38030474 38020383 37900292 38100195 38680100 
            38830040 38709984 38969965