MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0412
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
751 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWESTERN KS TO CENTRAL MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 022351Z - 030551Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL RATES SUPPORTED BY DEEP MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.  
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM EASTERN CO INTO
WESTERN KS.  AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN KS INTO SOUTHERN MO AND NORTHERN AR.  AS THE DEEP FORCING
AFFORDED BY THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACT WITH MOIST
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KS AND MO.  THE LATEST
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE POOL OF 2+ INCH PWS EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL KS TO SOUTHERN MO.  LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING
TO 20-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO HELP SUSTAIN 2-2.25 INCH PWS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THIS
MOISTURE ALONG WITH SUSTAINED LIFT AND AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.  DODGE CITY AND WICHITA
RADARS SHOW RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2.5 INCHES/HR FROM SOME OF
THESE DEVELOPING STORMS.  MEANWHILE...DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PARALLEL TO THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED SUPPORT TRAINING
CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS.  

SEVERAL OF THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS...INCLUDING THE 21Z
RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL AND PARALLEL HRRR SHOW WIDESPREAD 6-HR QPF
AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES
ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.  WHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE DETAILS...BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AND PARALLEL HRRR FOCUS THE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN KS...WITH A SECONDARY MAX
DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE 850 MB FRONT ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN KS INTO CENTRAL MO.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39799538 39189259 38619218 38129403 37409470 
            37149584 37439830 36830104 37670111 38809976 
            39079816