MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0413
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
153 AM EDT SUN JUL 03 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN HALF OF KS INTO CNTRL MO/WRN IL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 030552Z - 031152Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5 TO 2.5 IN/HR
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KANSAS INTO CNTRL
MISSOURI. THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN MISSOURI WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 4-6 INCHES
OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 12Z.

DISCUSSION...INFRARED SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW A
HEALTHY MCS PROPAGATING EWD ACROSS E-CNTRL KANSAS AT 05Z...DESPITE
SOME RECENT WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN ERN
KANSAS. KEAX RADAR HAS SHOWN AN EAST-WEST BAND OF TRAINING HEAVY
RAIN WITH DUAL POL ESTIMATED RATES OF 1.5 TO 2.5 IN/HR INCLUDING
JEFFERSON...LEAVENWORTH...PLATTE AND CLAY COUNTIES. THIS AXIS IS
RIGHT ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT...AND THE RAP SUPPORTS ONLY SLOW
MOVEMENT TO THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH 12Z. 

WHILE RAP/HRRR MUCAPE ESTIMATED VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND 250 J/KG
NEAR THE 850 MB FRONT...RECENT GPS SITES SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 2.1 TO 2.2 INCHES NEAR KANSAS CITY WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE MORNING.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH 12Z COULD AMOUNT TO 5-6 INCHES
IN A FEW LOCATIONS...LIKELY NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN MISSOURI OR
JUST NORTH OF I-70 TOWARD THE MISSOURI/ILLINOIS BORDER. THERE IS
GENERALLY VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE RECENT 00Z CAM MODEL SUITE
SUPPORTING THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...ILX...LSX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   39989461 39929287 39939064 39818947 39058919 
            38538972 38389130 38219267 37649428 37129579 
            36849650 36839723 36919791 37609783 38429739 
            39509707 39779639