MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0414
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 AM EDT SUN JUL 03 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/NERN OK INTO SERN KS/SWRN MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 030752Z - 031215Z
 
SUMMARY...AN INCREASING THREAT FOR TRAINING CELLS IS EVOLVING
ACROSS NRN OKLAHOMA INTO SWRN MISSOURI. RAIN RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN TRAINING CONVECTION FROM SW TO NE.

DISCUSSION...07Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACED A STATIONARY FRONT
ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER...EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH SWRN MO INTO NERN
AR. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RACING EAST ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER AT 20-30
KTS...AND CLOSER TO 20 KTS TOWARD THE SOUTH BY I-40...OUT AHEAD OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS IN ERN
KS. THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN SOME TRAINING OBSERVED ALONG PORTIONS
OF NWRN OKLAHOMA WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TO OVERRUN RAIN
COOLED AIR SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
REMAINS ROUGHLY 500-1000 J/KG IN NRN OKLAHOMA...SUFFICIENT FOR
HEAVY RAIN RATES WHEN COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER
2 INCHES.

RAP FORECASTS SHOW 850-700 MB FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY PARALLEL
TO MEAN CELL MOTIONS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ROUGHLY 30 KTS ACROSS
NERN OK BY 12Z. GIVEN INSTABILITY IS ADEQUATE...THE CONCERN IS THE
ORIENTATION OF THE OUTFLOW AND THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW BECOMING
BETTER ALIGNED FROM N-CNTRL OK INTO SWRN MISSOURI...OVERRUNNING
RAIN COOLED AIR...POSSIBLY SETTING UP PERIODS OF TRAINING AND A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR...PARALLEL HRRR HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
CONVECTION ACROSS NRN OK BUT SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY OFFERS HINTS
AT THIS SCENARIO. THE 00Z NMMB/ARW SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS WELL..BUT
APPEAR TO DEVELOP THE EXPECTED TRAINING TOO LATE. THE THREAT
APPEARS TO BE NOW THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   37809429 37759308 37089245 36089372 35739561 
            35829781 36239903 36589929 36869918 36969869 
            36969780 36959699 37119635 37549519